CalX1 - A Warning That Your Mileage May Vary At Cal Expo

Friday, January 27, 2012 - by Mark Ratzky, Publicity -- Cal Expo

Winter is in full swing, which means any number of possible track conditions can exist on a given night here in Sacramento at Cal Expo.

Haystacks Calhoun from atop Cal Expo in the announcer's booth.

In addition to his duties as announcer, publicity and simulcasting (exports), Scott Ehrlich is also in charge of the Variant Department at Cal Expo.  Each night’s program features his variants and average fractional times for the previous three weeks, giving handicappers an additional tool in their attempt to isolate a winner.

“It was around 1980 that I came up with my method of variants,” Scott explained.  “I eliminate the fastest two miles of the night and the two slowest miles of the night.  Then I take the remaining final times and divide them by the number of races I’m using.  That becomes the variant for the night.  I will eliminate the trot races unless the final time is better than the average.  The same method applies to the fractional times as well.”

Ehrlich realizes that there are handicappers that do variants for each class versus for the night, but points out after following the sport for 35 years, “you get a very good feel for how fast a specific class should be and recognize when the pace and final time for a race are faster than that class would normally go.

“I use the variants all the time,” Scott continued.  “Generally, I will adjust each horse’s time for the last three races, then see who has the fastest adjusted time, as well as who has the best average time, once adjusted.  It probably comes in most handy in cold weather, especially like when I was in Chicago, where it can be 10 degrees and windy one night and 30 degrees with no wind the next.  The variants for those nights could differ as much as two, three, or more seconds.”  Staying closer to home, Ehrlich pointed out to the difference between the January 20 and January 21 programs here at Cal Expo.

"The variant for Friday, January 20 was slow by four and three-fifths seconds, while on Saturday, January 21, it was fast by one and three-fifths seconds.  So a horse that raced on January 20 in 2:00, their time, once adjusted, becomes an adjusted time of 1:55 2/5."

“Now let’s say that one faces a horse that raced on January 21, who also had a final time of 2:00.  If you use the adjusted the time for that horse, it now becomes 2:01.3.  So, on paper, the same time.  Adjust their times though and there's a six and one-fifth second difference, which is thirty-one lengths.  Getting two variants that BIG in difference is a handicappers dream!  This is one of the ways you can get value when you wager."