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Saturday, October 12, 2013

Pocono Downs Analysis 10/12/13

Race 1 – Breeders Crown Elimination 2yo Colt Pace – Division 1 of 3
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 5-2-6-4

(5) Idealbeach Hanover – Showed life in his first start off of a month layoff at Lexington, pacing a covered trip and coming home in :26.4 to a game Somestarsomewhere. He will likely be placed closer to the pace and should improve in his second start off a layoff.

(2) Journeyman – The maturing son of American Ideal had two second-place efforts at Lexington, both of which he came home in sub-:27 final quarters. He is a closer at heart, but will need to take advantage of his draw and be placed closer to the lead to have a chance.

(6) Somestarsomewhere – Raced impressively in the International Stallion Stakes last week, taking the lead before the half and continuing to set fast fractions of :54.1, 1:22.4 and winning in 1:49.2. He has speed, but will not be the value we can appreciate in a wager, plus that mile might have taken something out of him.

(4) So Surreal – Made a first over move to sweep by Carracci Hanover in the International Stallion Stakes, coming home in :26.3 to win in 1:49.4. He is extremely consistent and will try to launch off the gate and get an easy mile as a prep for next week’s final.

Race 2 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Filly Trot – Division 1 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 3-2-4-5

(3) Coffeecake Hanover – Has been on a slight trail of improvement recently, coming off of a second-place finish to Classic Martine in 1:54.1. She took a two week break and returns tonight, likely fresh and ready to blaze around the Pocono oval.

(2) Bouncing Bax – Won the New York Sires Stakes Final impressively in a gate-to-wire 1:56.2. Her speed will be a huge benefactor in her journey to the winners’ circle, but her price may be below par. On a track where speed has been dominating recently, expect big things from this improving filly.

(4) Thistle Dhu – She too loves to race on the lead. She isn’t a deviant when head of command, but she gets the job done. She will likely get a pocket mile in order to save something for next week’s matchup and could blow up the trifecta.

(5) To Dream On – The freshmen filly champion will take an absurd amount of money for winning the Kentucky Filly Futurity in 1:52.1. That race set up for her to win, with the leaders setting fast fractions an hour after a 1:52.4 mile, and To Dream On was poised second over after being barely used in the elimination. She is improving, but these fillies should be able to contain themselves until the wire to prevent a closing effort.

Race 3 – Breeders Crown Elimination 2yo Colt Pace – Division 2 of 3
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 6-7-2-5

(6) Carracci Hanover – He really impressed me in the International Stallion Stake last week, pacing to the half in :26.4 and sustaining his bid until the wire, being defeated by half-a-length at the wire. He has been getting better with every appearance on the track and will be peaking just in time for a Crown title.

(7) Western Vintage – It’s easy to not use him on your tickets, but why wouldn’t you? He crushed his foes in the Bluegrass two weeks ago at Lexington, watching fast fractions being set on the lead just to sweep by and win by 4 lengths in 1:49.4. He loves to close and that may be his Achilles heel here. He won’t be much value either.

(2) Doo Wop Hanover – He has not had an easy trip in his last four starts. He has been parked the mile, badly shuffled, held in a speed duel and pacing on water through a typhoon. With no speed to his inside, you can expect him to get a pocket trip and be involved in the mix late.

(5) Crafty Master – Coming off a second-place finish in the Ontario Sires Stakes Super Final, where he traveled first over to lose by a neck to Bugger Bruiser in 1:50.3. He too is maturing with more miles and will hit the board tonight.

Race 4 – Breeders Crown Elimination 4yo & up Mare Trot – Division 1 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 4-5-2-6

(4) D’orsay – Can be excused for her last two breaks, one being on a half-mile and the other on the slop. She is known to have difficulty with her gait, but under perfect conditions tonight, she should stay flat and be sharp.

(5) Cowgirl Hall – Has been a player on the New York circuit, gradually making her way up the class ranks. She is coming off a good effort in an Open at Saratoga, closing 9 lengths to finish fourth in 1:57. She should like the five-eighths oval better than the half and against this not-so-classy field, she has a great chance for an upset.

(2) Unefoisdansmavie – Was a regular name in the Preferred Trots at The Meadows, racing against the boys week after week. She is excused for her last start against this group, as it was on a sloppy going. She draws well to be put into the race and pick up some pieces late in the mile.

(6) Cedar Dove – Her break was unattractive in the Allerage, quickly coming to a halt after being on a full-trot. She is a well-known competitor against this bunch and will likely complete the super in this event.

Race 5 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Colt Pace – Division 1 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 1-2-5-4

(1) Lucan Hanover – Received some well-needed time off after performing well at the Little Brown Jug, winning a heat and finishing third overall. He draws perfectly to leave for a pocket-mile, which should prove victorious in the likelihood that a speed duel should develop in the early stages of the mile.

(2) Sunshine Beach – Raced from off the pace in the Tattersalls, which proved to be unsuccessful. He has been doing well racing on the lead and can be expected to be a part of the heavy pace early on. He has shown he can fight right down until the wire, demonstrated in the Battle of the Brandywine on August 17.

(5) Apprentice Hanover – Raced very well in the Tattersalls last week, coming from off the pace to finish fourth with a :25.4 final quarter. Late speed like that will be very useful in making the trifecta here.

(4) Fool Me Once – He is not the same horse he was back in the North America Cup, he appears to be slowly burning out in fact. He still has menacing speed at early parts of the mile and is the reason for a speed battle to likely occur in this elimination.

Race 6 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Colt Trot – Division 1 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 4-5-6-3

(4) Deadliest Catch – He is a late bloomer in this group of glamour boy trotters, first appearing on the A-string stakes company at Lexington. He did well there, finishing third to eventual Kentucky Futurity winner Creatine. He unfortunately broke in the Futurity, likely not traveling well over the sloppy oval. He gets better every week and will continue on that path tonight.

(5) Smilin Eli – He makes his first start off of a month layoff that started after his fifth-place finish in the Canadian Trotting Classic. It was a positive sign that they gave him time off, which likely also means they fixed whatever was ailing him. He should be back to his champion self and gets lucky drawing into the weaker of the two eliminations.

(6) All Laid Out – He is the “wise guy” horse of this field, due to his two game efforts in the Kentucky Futurity last week. He is getting better, but is still a notch below this group.

(3) Fico – He is a good trotter when it comes to condition races, but seems to mess up when he gets to the stakes. He didn’t do too well at Lexington, in the Canadian Trotting Classic or the Colonial. He is coming off of a good qualifier at Lexington, makes his first start off of a slight break and adds lasix coming into tonight. He could light up the superfecta.

Race 7 – Breeders Crown Elimination 4yo & up Mare Pace – Division 1 of 1
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 1-2-6-4

(1) Economy Terror – Came back to the races after a well-needed break, finishing fifth in a Preferred Handicap against a few of these mares. This race looks to set up similarly to the Lady Liberty, a race in which she took the grand prize. From the rail, expect her to leave for a pocket trip and fly up the passing lane with fury.

(2) Rocklamation – Was forced to race closer to the pace on an off going in the Allerage. She moved first over through a :27.3 third-quarter as the winds and rain came down. She should get away towards the middle of the pack and come with her usual late kick in the stretch.

(6) Monkey On My Wheel – Appeared to be crippled in the slop at Lexington last week, not having much fight left in the stretch after a perfect trip. She is put to the test tonight from post 6 and will have to get off the gate fast for that pocket position. Chances are, she won’t get it and will somehow waste her energy looking for position early.

(4) Ooh Bad Shark – Being the underdog in this race, she has shown positive improvement entering here. She gradually made her way to the top of the conditioned ranks and is coming off of a 1:50.3 first over victory about two weeks ago. That break should freshen her up and prep her for the challenge of her career.

Race 8 – Breeders Crown Elimination 2yo Colt Pace – Division 3 of 3
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 1-4-3-2

(1) Luck Be Withyou – Got a tightening race two weeks ago, not being used too hard in a 1:54 stroll around Mohawk. He draws the rail, which should allow him to get a pocket trip in this speedy field.

(4) Fort Knox – Has rounded into form since his disappointing effort in the Bluegrass. Last week, he followed live cover and finished fourth in a :27 final quarter. He will likely get away towards the center of the pack with his draw and that will be beneficial for him to sweep up late.

(3) Three Of Clubs – Has a tremendous amount of speed. The son of Mach Three launched off the gate in the Ontario Sires Stakes Super Final, pacing the first quarter in :25.4. He came back in the stretch to finish third in 1:50.3. He will be a victim of the speed this field contains, most likely.

(2) Smack Talk – He too likes to race from off the pace. His post tonight will likely force him to leave the gate a little hard, just to secure position early in the mile. He usually has something left in the stretch, but might not be on the same level as these freshmen.

Race 9 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Colt Trot – Division 2 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 2-5-4-7

(2) Royalty For Life – Not much to say about this colt. He is vicious on the lead and can be excused for his loss in the Kentucky Futurity, as it was a severely sloppy track and he can’t really “bottom out the field” so to speak. He won’t have to do that tonight, which should spell easy victory.
(5) Spider Blue Chip – He is coming off of two good miles in the Kentucky Futurity, finishing second in the first heat and third in the second. Before that, he won with tremendous ease in the Bluegrass, trotting that mile in a 1:51.3 track record. He has been sharp every week and will be entering tonight.

(4) E L Rocket – Never was fully at the top-tier of this stakes division, but has done well in the minor spots. He is the kind of trotters that gets up to make the final and can do so at a price tonight.

(7) Creatine – This horse will be over bet for his Futurity victory, having the race set up for him to come from off the pace. Regardless, he couldn’t pull that same move tonight, as his outside draw would force him to leave to have a chance to make the final.

Race 10 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Colt Pace – Division 2 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 4-1-6-3
(4) Captaintreacherous – Nearly nothing negative to say against this colt. He brings his a-game as well as his competitive spirit every week to the races, going hard mile after hard mile. Even when overtaken in the stretch, he digs within to find another gear to get his nose in front. He is a once-in-a-lifetime horse from the first crop of Somebeachsomewhere and will not be defeated tonight.

(1) Vegas Vacation – The obvious second horse here. He challenged Captaintreacherous first over, getting a narrow lead on him in the stretch. Even though he had command, he soon lost it as Captaintreacherous began to fight back. He is the only horse capable of competing with Captaintreacherous, but beating him? Well, that’s another story. 

(6) Beach Memories – Has had success since reverting to a speed strategy back in the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes Final. He has speed, but not sustainable speed. He will likely bring some kind of price for the trifecta, but not a big one.

(3) Emeritus Maximus – Had to come from an impossible spot in the Tattersalls last week, racing second over while Captaintreacherous cut the mile. He draws well to get some sort of position early on and secure a spot for the final.

Race 11 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Filly Trot – Division 2 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 4-3-2

(4) Ma Chere Hall – My choice in a final attempt to defeat Bee A Magician. She has improved every week, with her best performances coming at Lexington. She loves to race on the lead and might try to park Bee A Magician in her attempt to sweep to the lead in the early parts of the mile.

(3) Bee A Magician – She is the division leader for obvious reasons: she can’t lose. She’s undefeated this year in 13 starts, with her most recent one being an easy 1:52.2 win in the Ontario Sires Stakes Super Final. With Ma Chere Hall currently at her peak, Bee A Magician might have a challenge tonight.

(2) Shared Past – She raced well in the Filly Futurity, breaking in the first heat and flying around the oval in the second heat. She loves to race on the lead as well, but will likely not put up a :54.2 half-mile.

Race 12 – Breeders Crown Elimination 4yo & up Pace – Division 1 of 1
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 2-6-5-1

(2) A Rocknroll Dance – He is being exempted for his poor effort in the Allerage, yet another victim of the sloppy track. Before that, he was great, putting up fast numbers and entering the winners’ circle with ease. He has a speedy one to his inside, but we can expect him to be near the top.

(6) Foiled Again – The veteran has not lost a step this year. He has recently been incredibly speedy, but was also racing on the half-mile. He’ll probably be placed towards the middle of the pack and come late into the stretch with a fast bid to pick up minor honors.

(5) Sweet Lou – He hasn’t been the greatest success this year, though has consistently hit the board week after week. He should get a good trip, whether that be a pocket mile or second over journey. Expect him to be somewhere near the top four in the late stages.

(1) Warrawee Needy – Has gradually gotten better with each qualifier. Not a big fan of his absence from this division for two months, but he draws well and has a resume to pose as a threat. He will not bring a price tonight and might need a start against this group before hitting his best stride.

Race 13 – Breeders Crown Elimination 4yo & up Mare Trot – Division 2 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 3-2-5-1

(3) Check Me Out – She has rounded into form very late in the season, struggling to compete with these mares earlier in the year. She set the fractions in the Allerage last week and was game to the wire, where she was nipped. She should leave the gate again tonight and improve as she slowly begins to peak.

(2) Maven – The obvious choice in this event. Despite drifting in the stretch, she stuck her nose out and got the victory over Check Me Out in the Allerage last week. She has a champion’s will and won’t be an easy foe to defeat here.

(5) Win Missy B – Defeated Preferred Mares at The Meadows just three days ago, doing so in 1:53.2. She was a part of the sophomore-filly trio that challenged each other all throughout last year. It is questionable if she got enough of a break for tonight, but she appears to be at the top of her form and does not fear us.

(1) Real Babe – Showed a ton of speed in the Allerage last week, though sitting a pocket trip to Check Me Out. She is the best of the remaining entrants here (not listed above) and will likely complete the super.

Race 14 – NW $23,000 L5 CD Pace
Purse: $21,000

Picks: 1-4-7-2

(1) Touch The Rock – Steps up in class off of an impressive 1:49.1 mile. He loves to race near the top and his post should allow him to do exactly that tonight.

(4) Fred And Ginger – Will take a majority of the betting here, off of a parked-mile victory against similar at Delaware, Ohio. He will be fresh off of a nearly-month layoff, but still has some competition to face.

(7) Musselsfrmbrussels – Closed very well in his last start, stepping down from this group and going up against the non-winners of $16,000 ranks. That mile showed that he has some life and after a two week break, will likely hit the board tonight.

(2) Flem N Em N – Drops from the Preferred company, where he finished fourth in a 1:48.1 mile. Before that, he finished second in this company after setting the fractions. He will likely try to do the same, but hasn’t shown he is capable of holding command for every pole.